The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control outcomes. The name is attributed to psychologist Ellen Langer. Langer's research demonstrated that people were more likely to behave as if they could exercise control in a chance situation where they had the option of applying what he called what he called "skill cues". By skill cues, Langer meant techniques that would be inherent in executing a normal skill. It was found, for example, that when rolling dice in a craps game people tend to throw harder when they need high numbers and softer for low numbers as though the force applied somehow affected chance.
Illusion of Control (beating the odds)
How is it that people still get so much mileage out of statements like, Everything has a way of working out in the end
? Things do not always work out in our favour and, if we use a bell curve, the odds are that things rarely work out for the best, or the worst, but typically they may resolve to a point where it is up to us to state whether the glass is half full or half empty. So what do such people encourage us to do? Lie To Yourself.
...we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose, Romans 8:28 (KJV).
That statement is true when we are submitting to a plan that God has for our lives. Unfortunately, this is not true when we pursue a course of action that tempts God.
Matthew 4:6-7 KJV And saith unto him, If thou be the Son of God, cast thyself down: for it is written, He shall give his angels charge concerning thee: and in their hands they shall bear thee up, lest at any time thou dash thy foot against a stone. 7 Jesus said unto him, It is written again, Thou shalt not tempt the Lord thy God.
Psychologists call our tendency to be positive Optimism Bias
because our positive expectations, or rather illusions, about the results of our plans and endeavours are mostly baseless. The tragedy of it is that if you believe that things will work out for the best on its own then you will tend to make poorer decisions by underestimating the danger. Acording to the website verywellmind.com Optimism Bias is affected by at least three factors:
- Infrequent events are more likely to be influenced by the optimism bias. People tend to think that they are less likely to be affected by things like hurricanes and floods simply because these are generally not everyday events.
- People experience the optimism bias more when they think the events are under the direct control and influence of the individual. As Sharot described in her TED Talk, it's not that people believe things will magically work out, they think that they have the skills and know-how to make it so.
- The optimism bias is more likely to occur if the negative event is perceived as unlikely. If for example, a person believes that getting skin cancer is very rare, he or she is more likely to be unrealistically optimistic about the risks.
Kendra Cherry Understanding the Optimism Bias AKA the Illusion of Invulnerabilityverywellmind.com WEBlast updated May 10, 2020
This fantasy bombards us everywhere. From Barbados to Boston to Beijing through movies, radio, television, and other we are sold this theme of overcoming against the odds. It is even the basis for many religious sounding programs. The Bible does not promise Christians that everything will work out positively in this life. We can check the pages of the Bible and see how many servants of God suffered. Some things get corrected when we repent but not all, and in some cases go on to cause great hurt to those that we love as we see in II Samuel 12 with David and the first child that he got from Bathsheba even after he repented of killing Uriah.
Lotteries have sprung up everywhere and ever increasing numbers convince themselves falsely that their chances are good when we know this is completely false. The vast majority will lose. Marriages fail, most business that start each year fail, peoples hopes for a better life are dashed for the vast majority of persons and if you are over forty you probably know that from experience. Statistics point to Roulette as one of the worst games you can play but tell that to Las Vegas.
Many people use the one case in 1,000 to tell us that we can expect it to be us. That person is not us and cannot be us because that case is surrounded by myriad peculiar circumstances that make it a unique event. It was then and it has passed. You may stand in the identical spot where someone was just struck by lightning and come to absolutely no harm. The moment has passed and the combination of circumstances created by the earth has moved on. You do not control those circumstances. The best you can do is be prepared but be realistic. This does not mean that we lose all hope.
John 5:2-8 KJV Now there is at Jerusalem by the sheep market a pool, which is called in the Hebrew tongue Bethesda, having five porches. 3 In these lay a great multitude of impotent folk, of blind, halt, withered, waiting for the moving of the water. 4 For an angel went down at a certain season into the pool, and troubled the water: whosoever then first after the troubling of the water stepped in was made whole of whatsoever disease he had. 5 And a certain man was there, which had an infirmity thirty and eight years. 6 When Jesus saw him lie, and knew that he had been now a long time in that case, he saith unto him, Wilt thou be made whole? 7 The impotent man answered him, Sir, I have no man, when the water is troubled, to put me into the pool: but while I am coming, another steppeth down before me. 8 Jesus saith unto him, Rise, take up thy bed, and walk.
You can sympathise with someone who takes a risk when their situation is hopeless. Are we gambling with our lives when our situation is not? Are we taking unnecessary chances in the mistaken belief that we can beat the odds? Consider the approach of Shadrach, Meshach and Abednego.
Daniel 3:16-18 KJV Shadrach, Meshach, and Abed–nego, answered and said to the king, O Nebuchadnezzar, we are not careful to answer thee in this matter. 17 If it be so, our God whom we serve is able to deliver us from the burning fiery furnace, and he will deliver us out of thine hand, O king. 18 But if not, be it known unto thee, O king, that we will not serve thy gods, nor worship the golden image which thou hast set up.
They did not fool themselves that they were in control but accepted the consequences of their actions. Still if we want to accomplish anything we need optimism to face the hardships that reality throws at us. The absurdity is that while we embrace the possibility of success we must simultaneously denounce any control over life's outcomes as an illusion. In other words we lie to ourselves if we rely on this life to be good because the only reliable way to beat the odds is to be dishonest, and if we are dishonest then, according to the Bible, we are sacrificing more than we know.
Matthew 13:44 [KJV] Again, the kingdom of heaven is like unto treasure hid in a field; the which when a man hath found, he hideth, and for joy thereof goeth and selleth all that he hath, and buyeth that field.
In the introduction of his thesis on page 1, of the paper, GOING ALL IN ON THE AMERICAN DREAM: REHTORIC,MYTH, AND THE POKERIZATION OF AMERICA, by Aaron Michael Duncan, Ph.D.University of Nebraska, 2011, he states:
Gambling has been present in America since the country‘s inception but today gambling is more popular than ever. Volberg et al. (2001) explain in the 1970s gambling revenue totaled about $3 billion but by 1999 the total had risen to $54 billion. The latest data available from the American Gaming Association reports that in 2007 gambling revenue exceeded $92 billion (Industry information, 2009). The annual revenue generated from legalized gambling in America exceeds the amount spent on movie tickets, recorded music, cruise ships, spectator sports, and theme parks combined (Volberg et al., 2001).
What this is saying is that we have at least $92 billion of losers who thought that they could beat the odds and very few winners by comparison.
Everywhere we look there is an obvious tendency for people to take unnecessary chances, to somehow believe that it wont happen to me
: drug abuse, drinking and driving, unprotected sex with multiple partners, robbing gas stations and stores etc.
In spite of all this information to the contrary people are still convinced that they control the results of their decisions. For example the Bible gives example upon example of Gods wrath and requirements but people believe that they can do as they please and still succeed. The apostle James was faced with this same situation 2,000 years ago.
James 1:22-25 KJV But be ye doers of the word, and not hearers only, deceiving your own selves. 23 For if any be a hearer of the word, and not a doer, he is like unto a man beholding his natural face in a glass: 24 For he beholdeth himself, and goeth his way, and straightway forgetteth what manner of man he was. 25 But whoso looketh into the perfect law of liberty, and continueth therein, he being not a forgetful hearer, but a doer of the work, this man shall be blessed in his deed.
We are not in control.
James 4:13-16 KJV Go to now, ye that say, To day or to morrow we will go into such a city, and continue there a year, and buy and sell, and get gain: 14 Whereas ye know not what shall be on the morrow. For what is your life? It is even a vapour, that appeareth for a little time, and then vanisheth away. 15 For that ye ought to say, If the Lord will, we shall live, and do this, or that. 16 But now ye rejoice in your boastings: all such rejoicing is evil.
The recent world economic crisis has broken the bubble for many people who believed that if they work hard and stay out of trouble then they will have financial security. At one time there were 13M people unemployed in the US. The Bible tells us
We cannot beat the odds. We are not in control. But there is someone who is and who can direct our steps.
Isaiah 46:10 [KJV] Declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times the things that are not yet done, saying, My counsel shall stand, and I will do all my pleasure:
It makes sense to be a part of His plan and to wait on Him.